[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 311513
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311513
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-311615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1510
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TN...FAR WRN NC...PARTS OF NRN AND ERN GA AND
WRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 311513Z - 311615Z

A STRONG WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 17Z ACROSS SERN TN INTO
ADJACENT PART OF FAR WRN NC AS A LINE OF TSTMS...CURRENTLY EXTENDING
FROM ROANE-WARREN COUNTIES TN...ADVANCES SEWD AT 25-30 KT.  CURRENT
FORWARD SPEED OF THIS LINE AND SBCINH STILL IN PLACE OVER SERN
TN/WRN NC SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE SHORT
TERM.

AFTER 17-18Z...A GREATER SEVERE WIND THREAT IS ANTICIPATED
DOWNSTREAM INTO PARTS OF NRN/ERN GA AND WRN SC...ONCE THE TN TSTM
LINE CROSSES THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS.

MID-LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM
WRN KY TO SERN TN...THROUGH CENTRAL TO SERN GA.  AIR MASS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY IS VERY MOIST /SURFACE DEWPOINTS MID-UPPER 70S/.  THIS
COMBINED WITH CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING WILL BOOST INSTABILITY WITH
MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER REDUCE
INHIBITION.  FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE IN
TN AND ASSOCIATED 30-35 KT WNWLY FLOW APPEARS TO BE AIDING IN THE
RECENT LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF THE TN TSTMS.  AS THIS IMPULSE TRACKS
INTO GA/SC THIS AFTERNOON...NWLY DEEP SHEAR VECTORS...MODERATE-
STRONG INSTABILITY AND ANY COLD POOL ENHANCEMENT SHOULD SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY AND SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT.  WITH
SHEAR ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE WARM FRONT...LINEAR STRUCTURE TO THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

..PETERS.. 07/31/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...

LAT...LON   34288498 34888542 35398564 35718496 35928418 35468344
            34738224 33228138 32678183 32388275 32708367 34288498



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