[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 261726
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261725
NCZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-261900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1465
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF MIDDLE AND ERN TN...NERN AL...FAR NRN
GA...WRN SC AND NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261725Z - 261900Z

TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SRN MIDDLE INTO ERN TN AND IN
ADJACENT PARTS OF NERN AL THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ALONG AND WSW
OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...IN ADVANCE OF AN EWD MOVING MCV.
ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND ALONG THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN TO WRN SC WNWWD
INTO NRN GA TO WRN TN.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION HAS
BECOME MODERATELY-STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM
2000-4000 J/KG...GIVEN STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WITHIN RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE.  OTHER THAN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND UPSLOPE
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF AN EWD
MOVING MCV...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN MIDDLE TN PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SHOULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR MORE NUMEROUS TSTM COVERAGE.
WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT FOR A
MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND THE NEED FOR A WATCH.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE HIGH CAPE VALUES AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..PETERS.. 07/26/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35258793 35578634 36308533 36638470 36588176 36208089
            35548131 34798251 34048241 33828273 34578377 34568592
            34818662 34938726 35258793



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