[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 190634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190634
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-190800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1360
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 AM CDT MON JUL 19 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MO...NERN AR AND FAR WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 190634Z - 190800Z

ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT/
EARLY MONDAY MORNING TIME PERIOD...PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR SERN MO
BOOTHEEL INTO FAR NERN AR AND PARTS OF FAR WRN TN.  ALTHOUGH HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AND IN THE WAKE OF THE ERN MOST
PORTION OF THE MCS IN THIS REGION...THE WRN EXTENT OF THE MCS WHICH
SHOULD SUSTAIN A MUCH SLOWER SWD MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
TRAINING STORMS WITHIN A 40 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FROM SERN MO INTO
NERN AR.  THIS CORRIDOR CONTAINS THE MO COUNTIES OF OREGON...
CARTER...RIPLEY...AND BUTLER...AND THE AR COUNTIES OF RANDOLPH AND
CLAY SWD TO JACKSON...CRAIGHEAD AND MISSISSIPPI.

AT 0625Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A SWD PROPAGATING MCS WITH
THE SRN EXTENT ADVANCING THROUGH THE MO BOOTHEEL/ADJACENT SRN MO
COUNTIES INTO NERN AR/NWRN TN.  THE BOOTHEEL PORTION OF THIS LINE
CONTINUED TO SHOW STRONGEST FORWARD SPEED OF 35-40 KT...WHICH GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WOULD PROMOTE A THREAT FOR
MAINLY ISOLATED STRONGER WIND GUSTS.  GIVEN THE LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE OF THIS THREAT...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT WARRANTED.

MEANWHILE...THE OTHER THREAT CONCERN IS FOR TRAINING STORMS TO
ADVANCE SLOWLY SWD WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED 40 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR
FROM SERN MO INTO NERN AR THIS MORNING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
UP TO 2 INCHES FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WITH TRAINING STORMS
EXACERBATING THE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERN WITHIN THIS AREA.  CORFIDI
VECTORS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO 5 KT BY 12Z WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE
SLOW SWD PROPAGATION OF THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS MCS.

..PETERS.. 07/19/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   37039059 36519015 36538970 36778948 36458913 35838886
            35148892 35088969 35069044 35509113 36839130 37059104
            37039059



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