[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 121526
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121526
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-121700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1263
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS VICINITY TO CENTRAL
NC/SOUTHERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 121526Z - 121700Z

SEVERE TSTM THREAT MAY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
FROM THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO CENTRAL NC/SOUTHERN
VA. THE REGION WILL BE INCLUDED IN A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK WITH
THE 1630Z DAY 1 UPDATE.

ONE OR MORE SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES/MCVS WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH ONE NOTED ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER VICINITY WITH AN
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ALSO ANALYZED IN THIS AREA. WHILE CLOUD COVER
MAY TEMPER DESTABILIZATION TO A DEGREE...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT TSTMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE/INTENSIFY AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
MCV/MID LEVEL IMPULSE...WITH DEVELOPMENT LOOSELY FOCUSED ALONG A
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT
THAT EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF SC/NC INTO VA. MID/HIGH
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED TO BE RELATIVELY STRONG /30-40
KT/ ACROSS THE REGION PER 12Z UPPER AIR DIAGNOSTICS AND MORE
CONTEMPORARY REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA...AND THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO ORGANIZE/SUSTAINED STORMS...INCLUDING MULTICELLS/SOME SUPERCELLS.
DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NC INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN VA...AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS MODESTLY BACKED AND IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL SRH WILL BE
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES.

..GUYER.. 07/12/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON   35778363 36068147 37667939 37517822 35387907 34418110
            34588331 34928401 35778363


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