[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 111812
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111811
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-111945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1250
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF AR...WRN TN...NWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111811Z - 111945Z

ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS MAY POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
AR...WRN TN...AND NWRN MS. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER A WW WILL BE
NEEDED ATTM...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

GPS GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH PW AIR MASS /VALUES AOA 2 INCHES/
CONTINUING TO SURGE NWD ACROSS AR...WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM
THROUGH THE 80S-NEAR 90 F IN THE PRESENCE OF LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS. AS
A RESULT...VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS DEVELOPING...WITH MLCAPE
VALUES AOA 2500 J/KG. REGION ALSO RESIDES ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF
STRONGER /30+ KT/ WLY/S...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER S/W TROUGH LOCATED
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF THE REGION PER WV IMAGERY. COMBINATION OF
MODEST ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE AND FAVORABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR AN INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOT/HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER...STRONG
INSTABILITY...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 30 KT WILL RESULT IN
POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS POSING A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..GARNER.. 07/11/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   33878972 33449170 33539349 34469442 35709447 36449290
            36358948 35288886 33878972


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