[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 290454
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290454
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-291000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0081
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 PM CST THU JAN 28 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...WRN TN

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 290454Z - 291000Z

INCREASING ASCENT AND MOISTURE FLUX AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NERN AR AND
WRN TN. RATES OF 0.05 TO 0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LATE EVENING COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RA AND FZRA EXPANDING EWD ACROSS WRN TN...WITH HEAVIER RA
SITUATED ACROSS WRN AR. MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WAA ATOP A
SFC-850 MB COLD LAYER WILL MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION IN THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. SUBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES POST-FRONTAL CAA
REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SFC T-TD SPREAD ALSO
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR WET-BULB COOLING AS MID-LEVEL
MOISTENING/ASCENT BEGINS TO INCREASE WITHIN DIFLUENT REGION AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM NOSE /2-3
DEG C/ WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z. AS SFC TEMPS BEGIN TO
COOL...VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FZRA...YIELDING RATES OF 0.05-0.10 INCH PER 3
HOURS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. BY
MID-MORNING...CONTINUING DEEPENING/REINFORCEMENT OF THE NEAR-SFC
COLD LAYER MAY YIELD FROZEN PRECIPITATION /MAINLY SLEET/ MIXING IN
WITH FZRA.

..ROGERS.. 01/29/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   35269200 36439159 36548828 35788705 35198752 35179028
            34879128 35269200

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