[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 160918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160917
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-161515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 AM CST THU DEC 16 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IND...ERN KY...SRN OH...SRN WV...NERN
TN...NWRN NC...WRN VA...

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 160917Z - 161515Z

A WINTRY MIX WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS ERN TN...NWRN NC...ERN KY...FAR SWRN VA AND SERN IND.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW FARTHER NE FROM SRN
OH...SRN WV AND WRN VA BEFORE MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET LATER THIS MORNING.

PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINAS WNWWD THROUGH
THE TN VALLEY. A 60 KT SWLY LLJ WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE SERN U.S.
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO SRN PORTION OF OH VALLEY. THIS FEATURE
WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
LOCATED WHERE THE LLJ INTERSECTS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...INITIALLY
FROM SRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY THEN EXPANDING EWD WITH TIME THROUGH
THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING
ALONG THE LLJ AXIS...RESULTING IN A LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR
DEVELOPING NEWD OVER THE SUBFREEZING LAYER AND CHANGING
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO FREEZING RAIN FROM THE TN VALLEY NWD THROUGH
KY. A SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER BETWEEN 700-500 MB HAS RESULTED IN SOME
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT...BUT FREEZING RAIN RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN .05 TO .1 INCH PER HOUR. SNOW CONTINUES
WITH INITIAL BAND FARTHER NORTH FROM THE OH VALLEY THROUGH WV INTO
WRN VA. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THIS BAND ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MODEST WITH RATES GENERALLY UNDER 1 INCH PER HOUR.

..DIAL.. 12/16/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
IND...

LAT...LON   39368480 38998170 37997942 36877871 36217991 35758344
            36928444 38008592 38978616 39368480


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net