[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 121751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121751
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-121845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1654
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHWEST INDIANA/WESTERN
KY/SOUTHEAST MO INTO TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 121751Z - 121845Z

STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE/MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF FAR SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KY
THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IL...PARALLEL TO BUT SOUTH OF I-64/THE MOUNT
VERNON VICINITY AS OF 1730Z. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA AND THE
BLOOMFIELD MO PROFILER SAMPLE THE RATHER WEAK LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW /TYPICALLY 10 KT OR LESS/ THAT EXISTS ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR.
NONETHELESS...A MOIST/STRONGLY HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH MLCAPES
TO UPWARDS OF 3000-4000 J/KG...WILL SUPPORT STORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...A DEGREE OF STORM-SCALE
ORGANIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE ALONG A GRADUALLY EXPANDING/SOUTHEAST
PROPAGATING COLD POOL/S MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IL INTO WESTERN
KY. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATED ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF THE OVERALL
RISK SHOULD PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..GUYER.. 08/12/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   38218925 38348723 38258495 36648566 36298862 36809086
            37829072 38218925



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