[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 241432
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241431
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-241530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0372
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0931 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...MID-SOUTH AND LOWER OH VLY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241431Z - 241530Z

TORNADO RISK WILL INCREASE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE MID-SOUTH AND
LWR OH VLY THROUGH THE AFTN.  STRONG AND LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS.

UPR AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS UPSTREAM TROUGH GOING NEGATIVE-TILT /100
METER 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS/ WITH AN EMBEDDED JET-STREAK PUNCHING ENE
INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.  THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE
MID-SOUTH/LWR OH VLY REGIONS THIS AFTN.  SFC LOW OVER NCNTRL AR WILL
TRACK TO NEAR ST. LOUIS BY LATE AFTN AND UNDERGO CONSIDERABLE
DEEPENING.

MORNING STG/SVR TSTMS CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE ENE THROUGH THE TN VLY
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTN AND PROBABLY BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME
AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SRN APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS.  SVR THREAT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE UPSTREAM THIS
AFTN.

WARM SECTOR...CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR
70S WILL SURGE N IN WAKE OF MORNING ACTIVITY INTO ERN AR...SERN
MO...MIDDLE/WRN TN AND WRN KY AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN RAPID DESTABILIZATION AND SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN TSTMS.
FCST LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT TREMENDOUS 0-1KM
SRH VALUES 300-500+ M2/S2.  THUS...ANY STORM WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG...LONG-LIVED TORNADOES ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL RISKS.

IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY SVR EVENT MAY BE BEGINNING ACROSS
SCNTRL/SERN AR JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/WIND SHIFT.  ACTIVITY
SHOULD GROW UPSCALE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTN ENE TOWARD THE
MEMPHIS/MID-SOUTH AREA AND TOWARD THE LWR OH VLY LATER THIS AFTN.

..RACY.. 04/24/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   33929244 35179136 37078888 37648786 37718742 37478604
            36298589 35048601 33968727 32978921 32889049 33079188
            33929244

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