[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 030759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030759
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-030930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0242
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 AM CDT SAT APR 03 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 030759Z - 030930Z

A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH ABOUT 09Z ACROSS
NRN MS/WRN TN...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS.  THE MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT THIS
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEGUN TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE PAST HOUR
FROM NW MS INTO EXTREME WRN TN AS THE INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
COMES IN PHASE WITH THE BELT OF STRONGER LOW-MIDLEVEL ASCENT
PRECEDING THE STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH EJECTING NEWD OVER AR.  50 KT
SSWLY FLOW EXTENDS TO WITHIN 1 KM OF THE GROUND PER REGIONAL
VWP/S...AND THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
MIDLEVEL TROUGH ACCELERATES NEWD OVER THE AREA AND THE LINE OF
STORMS LIKEWISE MOVES FASTER TO THE EAST.  THE PRIMARY POTENTIAL
LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT WILL BE
MINIMAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND A FEED OF ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE GROUND FROM THE SW.  STILL...DESPITE THE WEAK
INSTABILITY...THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
MORE RAPID STORM MOTION/MOMENTUM TRANSPORT TO THE GROUND AND AN
ASSOCIATED RISK FOR WIND DAMAGE.

..THOMPSON.. 04/03/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   34588786 34068839 33608941 33449020 33699059 34259022
            35118959 35798933 36228920 36528900 36798852 36778769
            36258735 35188754 34588786



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