[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 091708
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091708
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-091815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2095
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT FRI OCT 09 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF MIDDLE TN INTO CNTRL/ERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 091708Z - 091815Z

A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED SOON.

ALTHOUGH NOT YET EVIDENT IN CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING DATA...LIKELY
DUE TO A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES
AND CAPE...CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING ALONG A SLOW
MOVING PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE BOUNDARY.  THIS CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR
ENHANCED BOUNDARY EXTENDS EAST OF MEMPHIS THROUGH AREAS WEST OF
NASHVILLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN THE FOCUS
FOR INCREASING/INTENSIFYING STORMS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT GRADUALLY INCREASES DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  ACCOMPANIED BY INTENSIFYING FLOW
FIELDS...INCLUDING 40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY AT LOWER LEVELS...THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS PROBABLY WILL INCREASING.  AND...GIVEN A
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY
BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 10/09/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   36118746 37448574 38028479 37698357 36608447 34978712
            34938877 36118746

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net