[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 090407
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090406
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-090530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2088
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 PM CDT THU OCT 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...FAR SE MO...WRN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 761...

VALID 090406Z - 090530Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 761 CONTINUES.

AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 761 OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ALONG A TIGHT
GRADIENT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON SFC ANALYSIS. SOUTH OF THE
LINE...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND THE RUC HAS
INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES NOW RANGING FROM 1000 J/KG
NEAR THE AR STATE-LINE TO ALMOST 3000 J/KG IN SW AR. THIS SHOULD
HELP SUSTAIN THE LINE EWD ACROSS NRN AR OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS.
THE RUC ALSO SUGGESTS THIS CORRIDOR REMAINS UNCAPPED POINTING TO A
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH INDIVIDUAL BOWING-LINE
SEGMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE SQUALL-LINE. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
STILL QUITE IMPRESSIVE AS EVIDENCED ON THE LITTLE ROCK WSR-88D VWP.
THIS IS ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN OR AHEAD OF THE LINE. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 10/09/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36718705 36108886 35619055 35099223 34999304 35019340
            35249355 35489350 35809341 36049332 36199316 36279283
            36489208 36719117 37039003 37328905 37868793 37998744
            37958725 37668690 36718705

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