[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 242319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242319
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-250115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0864
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN TN...NERN AR...MO BOOT-HEEL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 242319Z - 250115Z

NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
EVIDENT IN SUPPORT OF MINI-SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA.
TORNADO HAS BEEN REPORTED NEAR MS RIVER W OF DYR FROM EARLIER TSTM.
OTHER CONVECTION MOVING INTO THIS REGION FROM NRN MS MAY ROTATE WITH
BRIEF TORNADO POSSIBLE DURING NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

DEEP-LAYER/WARM-CORE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWWD ACROSS CENTRAL
AR.  SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CONFLUENCE LINE FROM SRN DUNKLIN COUNTY
MO AND NRN MS COUNTY AR...ESEWD TO ABOUT 15 SSW DYR THEN SSEWD TO
NRN MS...WHICH SHOULD PIVOT SLOWLY NWWD.  DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT FROM NEAR SRN BORDER OF MO BOOT-HEEL ESEWD
ACROSS W-CENTRAL TN NEAR MKL.  ALONG AND JUST N OF THIS
BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MAXIMIZED AMIDST BACKED SFC
WINDS...WITH 0-1 KM SRH ESTIMATED IN 150-200 J/KG RANGE.  THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE EXCEPT WHERE LOCALLY MODIFIED BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...AND SHOULD LOSE DEFINITION AFTER SUNSET.
HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL VORTICITY MAX MAY REMAIN IN PLACE INTO
EARLY EVENING AND SUPPORT SHORT-LIVED ROTATION OF CELLS INTERACTING
WITH IT...FOR AS LONG AS THERE ARE SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW
PARCELS AVAILABLE INSIDE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC GRADIENT.  MODIFIED
RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG ALONG AND S OF THIS
BOUNDARY.  PLANAR ANALYSES INDICATE NRN GRADIENT OF 0-3 KM CAPE MAX
SUPERIMPOSED ON SFC VORTICITY FIELD FROM JUST W DYR WSW TO NEAR SRC.
 FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER BUOYANCY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 01Z THEN DIMINISH THEREAFTER....GIVEN LOSS OF SFC HEATING AND
WEAKNESS OF MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..EDWARDS.. 05/24/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   35659127 36079064 36228981 36028942 35488911 35458948
            35538996 35539042 35369135 35659127

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net