[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 161804
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161804
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-161900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0846
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF MIDDLE TN / EXTREME NWRN AL - NERN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 161804Z - 161900Z

POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS
ACROSS PARTS OF MIDDLE TN AND EXTREME NWRN AL.  A WW IS UNLIKELY
ATTM DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED SPATIAL EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT
ASSOCIATED PRIMARILY WITH LINE SEGMENT OVER PARTS OF SWRN TN.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM 25 MI N BNA
SWWD TO 20 MI N UOX.  RIGOROUS TSTMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DMGG WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG FRONT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO A VERY MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
CHARACTERIZED BY 1500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE WHEN MODIFIED FOR SURFACE
CONDITIONS /LOWER 80S TEMP/UPPER 60S TD/.  DESPITE MODEST COLD POOL
ORGANIZATION WITH LOOSELY ORGANIZED-BROKEN LINE SEGMENT OVER TN AND
SUSTAINED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...WEAK WIND PROFILES WILL TEND TO
LIMIT A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.  LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION PUTS
LINE SEGMENT NEAR THE CSV AND HSV AREAS NEAR OR AFTER 22Z.

..SMITH.. 05/16/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   36588633 36598556 36408518 36038518 35308586 34758687
            34628790 34688851 34948884 35248842 36298704 36588633

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