[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 090030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090030
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-090200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0768
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST AR/MUCH OF TN/EASTERN KY INTO SOUTHERN WV
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF VA/NC/SC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 271...273...

VALID 090030Z - 090200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 271...273...CONTINUES.

TORNADO WATCHES 271/273 CONTINUE UNTIL 04Z/06Z RESPECTIVELY.

ACROSS FAR EASTERN KY/NORTHEAST TN...SUPERCELLULAR STORMS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO POSE A TORNADO/HAIL THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...PERHAPS INTO THE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN
WV/WESTERN VA/WESTERN NC. EASTERN KY ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO MID LEVEL MCV...WITH A WARM/UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FEED
IMPINGING ON THE PERIPHERY OF PRIOR EASTERN KY COLD POOL. THE SEVERE
STORM THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT INTO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WW 273 ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC/SC.

FARTHER WEST...REMAINDER OF TORNADO WATCH 271 IS SCHEDULED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 04Z ACROSS MUCH OF TN/NORTHEAST AR. EARLIER SEVERE
TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN TN HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ELEVATED ATOP EARLIER
OUTFLOW/WESTERN TN SURFACE COLD POOL. EXPECTATIONS FOR STORM
MODE/APPRECIABLE SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ARE QUESTIONABLE IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLY DAY MCS AND MCV NOW ACROSS EASTERN KY...WITH
WATER VAPOR/SATELLITE IMAGERY IMPLYING LITTLE/UNCERTAIN LARGE SCALE
FORCING. ALONG THESE LINES...00Z LITTLE ROCK OBSERVED RAOB AND A
RECENT ACARS SOUNDING FROM THE MEMPHIS AREA DEPICT AN AMPLE MID
LEVEL CAP...WHICH ADDITIONALLY PUTS ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IN QUESTION. NEVERTHELESS...SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART
OF WW 271 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOVING COLD FRONT...SUCH THAT AT LEAST
A HAIL THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING.

..GUYER.. 05/09/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...
MEG...

LAT...LON   37898213 37478041 36178074 34828171 34618281 35298378
            35498844 35439098 36409077 36538820 36678471 37788337
            37898213

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