[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 081709
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081708
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-081845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0761
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME IND...CNTRL AND ERN KY AND PORTIONS OF ERN
TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 081708Z - 081845Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD THROUGH SRN
IND...CNTRL AND ERN KY THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN TN THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEFORE 18Z.

BOW-ECHO COMMA-HEAD SYSTEM REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AND EXTENDS FROM
SERN MO...SRN IL INTO EXTREME NERN AR. ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST AT 50
TO 60 KT AND WILL APPROACH THE ERN EDGE OF TORNADO WATCH 267 BY
1830Z. PRE-CONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE THROUGH W
CNTRL TN AND WRN KY...BUT INSTABILITY DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
ERN EXTENT ACROSS ERN KY AND TN. A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SRN OH VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEWD THETA-E ADVECTION AND
DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL
ALSO HELP TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES WITHIN THE BROADER
MESOSCALE SYSTEM. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG WARM ADVECTION
WING AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS WRN KY. THERE SOME CONCERN THAT THIS
ACTIVITY COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME SURFACE BASED AS THE SURFACE LAYER
WARMS. ANY DISCRETE SURFACE BASED STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE WOULD
LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR AND
INCREASING HODOGRAPH SIZE WITH TIME. DAMAGING WIND...ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES.

..DIAL.. 05/08/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35458450 35278641 36288638 38328660 38508434 37618296
            35458450

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