[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 021938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021938
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-022115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0670
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT SAT MAY 02 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL/NRN GA...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF WRN/MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 021938Z - 022115Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.  A
WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS OBSCURED THE PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT...
WHICH APPEARS TO LIE IN A GENERAL EAST-WEST ORIENTATION ACROSS
TENNESSEE.  AND...BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY NOW APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...AS SURFACE HEATING
INCREASES WITHIN BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER.  FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE LINGERING THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PREVIOUSLY RAIN COOLED AIR...SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT RENEWED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION.  RUC MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS
MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ACROSS THIS
REGION...IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF AN UPSTREAM TROUGH.  AS THIS OCCURS...POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZING STORM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE.

..KERR.. 05/02/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   35159015 35278796 35008586 34258555 33578563 33208606
            33068714 33178849 33278983 33579084 34109102 35159015



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