[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 020646
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020645
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-020815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0664
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 AM CDT SAT MAY 02 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN OK...AR...SWRN TN...NWRN MS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 224...

VALID 020645Z - 020815Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 224
CONTINUES.

ATTM...SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR ADDITIONAL WW ONCE
THIS ONE EXPIRES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS IN PROJECTED PATH OF STG-SVR MCS OVER
PORTION CENTRAL/ERN AR...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END SVR
HAIL AND ALSO THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS.  GUST FRONT APPEARS
TO BE OUTRUNNING LEADING REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT EXCEPT NEAR IMMEDIATE
NOSE AREA OF SMALL BOW AROUND NRN LONOKE/NRN PRAIRIE COUNTIES AS OF
630Z.  THIS INDICATES ORGANIZATION OF COMPLEX MAY DIMINISH SOON
EXCEPT FOR BRIEF/LOCALIZED SURGING/BOWING TENDENCIES.  PRIND
POTENTIAL FOR SVR DIMINISHES SEWD INTO MS...ALTHOUGH STRONGER CELLS
WITHIN LOOSELY ORGANIZED WAA WING OVER NERN AR AND SWRN TN MAY POSE
ISOLATED HAIL RISK.  ELEVATED ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTED
BY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MOIST/SWLY LLJ.

SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM BETWEEN DYR-MKL WSWWD
OVER N-CENTRAL AR...LOSING IDENTITY WITHIN AND JUST N OF MCS...THEN
EVIDENT AGAIN FROM JUST N FSM SWWD ACROSS SERN OK AND EXTREME
N-CENTRAL TX...TO NEAR DYS. THIS FRONT SHOULD DRIFT SWD THROUGH NEXT
FEW HOURS.  FRONT AND MCS OUTFLOW WILL COMBINE TO DEMARCATE NRN
BOUND OF VERY MOIST/HIGH-THETAE AIR MASS -- WHERE SFC DEW POINTS
UPPER 60S TO 70 F ARE COMMON.  ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN AR WILL
REMAIN SFC-BASED OR VERY NEARLY SO...WITH MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG
COMMON.  HOWEVER...IN PROSPECTIVE PATH OF MCS...MLCINH WILL
STRENGTHEN WITH EWD EXTENT TO NRN MS.  40-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDE SHOULD AID STORM ORGANIZATION FOR ANY TRAILING STORMS THAT
MAY DEVELOP...ON EITHER SIDE OF COLD FRONT. HAIL WOULD BE MAIN
CONCERN FOR POST-FRONTAL ACTIVITY OR STORMS FORMING ATOP LEFTOVER
COLD POOL FROM MCS.

..EDWARDS.. 05/02/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34999589 35509460 35639337 35649153 35409025 35088932
            34228885 33528946 33399132 33789305 33939340 34009377
            33739384 33939443 33619448 33969522 33899545 33899587
            34169595 34159574 34509578 34509562 34629566 34619591
            34679591 34999589

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