[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 282219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282218
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-282315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0321
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0518 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH AND TN RIVER VALLEYS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 91...

VALID 282218Z - 282315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 91 CONTINUES.

SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DMGG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH
AND TN RIVER VALLEYS.

21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 993 MB NEAR THE IL/IN/KY
BORDERS...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD THROUGH MIDDLE TN AND A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD THEN SEWD THROUGH SERN KY AND INTO NC.
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY OWING
TO AMPLE INSOLATION...AND IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 60 KTS AS
SAMPLED BY VAD WIND PROFILER DATA INVOF ONGOING CONVECTION. STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA...AND THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH STRONG SHEAR WILL PROMOTE LARGE HAIL GROWTH AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WINDS. BACKED SURFACE FLOW...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE WARM FRONT...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT. STORMS
SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO THE N AS THEY CROSS THE OH RIVER INTO MORE
STABLE/COOLER AIR.

..HURLBUT.. 03/28/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...

LAT...LON   34228625 34348726 35738767 37418804 38268771 37898635
            37078608 34678560 34428562 34228625



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