[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 010436
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010435
TNZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-010600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1393
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN KY...MIDDLE-ERN TN...EXTREME SWRN VA.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 010435Z - 010600Z

STMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS SERN KY AND
MIDDLE-ERN TN...ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ABOVE SFC...COLLOCATED WITH 25-35 KT LLJ.  A FEW OF THESE TSTMS HAVE
PRODUCED HAIL AROUND AN INCH DIAMETER.  OCCASIONAL/ADDITIONAL
HAIL...ALONG WITH GUSTS APCHG 50 KT SVR CRITERIA AND CAPABLE OF
MINOR DAMAGE...ARE POSSIBLE -- MAINLY OVER AREAS ALONG/W OF
CHA-TRI-LOZ LINE.

VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST TRANSIENT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN NEARLY
SFC-BASED...GIVEN CERTAIN MODIFICATIONS TO RUC SOUNDINGS AND TO 00Z
OHX RAOB THAT APPEARS TO NOT SAMPLE PLUME OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO
THIS ACTIVITY.  WEAK NEAR-SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT WILL LIMIT SRH...AND
AFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 35
KT MOST AREAS.  HOWEVER...SOME VEERING AND STRENGTHENING OF FLOW IN
LOWEST 3-4 KM YIELDS SLIGHTLY CURVED DEEPER-LAYER HODOGRAPHS...WITH
SEWD STORM MOTIONS CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE
INFLOW.  MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED AOB 500 J/KG...DIMINISHING CONSIDERABLY
SEWD TOWARD FAR NERN AND SERN PORTIONS OF TN WHERE LOW LEVEL THETAE
APPEARS WEAK.  ELEVATED MUCAPE IS HIGHER...HOWEVER -- 400-800
J/KG...WHEN ASSIMILATING UPSTREAM MOISTURE FROM LOWER-MID MS VALLEY
ALONG TRAJECTORIES CORRESPONDING TO CYCLONICALLY CURVING LLJ PATH.

..EDWARDS.. 07/01/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35698761 36078648 36798573 37098453 36838306 36458242
            35028529 35698761



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net