[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 272043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272043
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-272145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1357
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...N/CNTRL GA...MUCH OF SC/NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 526...

VALID 272043Z - 272145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 526
CONTINUES.

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ALONG A ZONE OF WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
RUNNING THROUGH TN SEWD THROUGH AHN GA AND TOWARDS CHS SC.
APPEARANCE ON VISIBLE SEEMS TO INDICATE SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING AT
THE MOMENT...AS THE CU FIELD IS DECREASING IN SOME AREAS...WHILE
ONGOING STORMS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING SUBSTANTIAL UPDRAFTS.
ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS...LACK OF STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
SUBSIDENCE MAY BE HINDERING UPDRAFTS/STORM DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...DESPITE THESE INITIAL LIMITATIONS...AMPLE SURFACE HEATING
CONTINUES AND TEMPERATURES ARE NOW WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MOIST...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WHILE
MOISTURE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
PRIMARY AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BASED ON CURRENT WV IMAGERY APPEARS
TO BE MOVING OFFSHORE OF VA/SC AT THE MOMENT. IN OBSERVING REMNANT
VORT MAXIMUMS...IT APPEARS THAT ONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CNTRL
KY...WHILE A SECOND SUBTLE WAVE IS MOVING INTO WV. THIS MAY
GRADUALLY PROVIDE WEAK ASCENT...ALLOWING STRONGER CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING. MODEST WLY/NWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP THE SEA
BREEZE IN SC/NC CONFINED TO THE COAST. AS STORMS INTERACT WITH THE
SEA BREEZE...ENHANCED CONVERGENCE MAY INCREASE THE SEVERITY...WHILE
LOCALIZED BACKED FLOW MAY SUPPORT VERY BRIEF/ISOLD
FUNNELS/WATERSPOUTS/WEAK TORNADOES.

..HURLBUT.. 06/27/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON   32758457 35188457 35857745 33357763 32758457

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