[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 142305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142305
WVZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-150000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1122
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0605 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...KY...FAR NRN TN...WRN WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407...413...

VALID 142305Z - 150000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
407...413...CONTINUES.

A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP W/SW OF WW 407 ACROSS WRN KY
INTO FAR NRN TN. ATTM...AN ADDITIONAL WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO
BE REQUIRED.

RECENT RADAR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TSTMS/CBS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A WELL-DEFINED CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED
FROM NEAR FAM TO OWB TO 30 NE SDF...WITH A SECONDARY CONFLUENCE AXIS
FROM ROUGHLY 15 S PAH TO 30 S BWG. UPDRAFTS SO FAR APPEAR TO BE
STRUGGLING IN COMPARISON TO MORE ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS ERN KY
WITHIN WW/S 407/413. THIS IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO WARMER
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AS DEPICTED BY LATEST ECMWF AND GFS
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IN
ADDITION...MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS STRONGER FARTHER E...PER
COMPARISON OF JKL AND RLX VWP DATA TO BLOOMFIELD MO PROFILER. AS
SUCH...OVERALL THREAT SHOULD BE MORE MARGINAL/SHORTER-LIVED ACROSS
WRN KY/NRN TN...BUT MAY STILL YIELD A FEW DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL
EVENTS.

..GRAMS.. 06/14/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36278568 36138692 36328781 36798847 37528836 37808785
            38128659 38468569 38838412 38838279 38348201 37748192
            37478206 37168256 36748451 36278568

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