[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 130411
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130410
TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-OKZ000-130515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1089
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...AR/FAR SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN TN/NORTHWEST MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 130410Z - 130515Z

MONITORING FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF AR/FAR SOUTHEAST OK INTO PERHAPS WESTERN TN/NORTHWEST MS. IF
INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

WITH REGIONAL PROFILERS/WSR-88D VWP TRENDS REFLECTING AS MUCH AS
20-25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 1 KM...IMPLICATIONS ARE THAT A
LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME IS INCREASING INTO AR ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED/OUTFLOW REINFORCED
FRONTAL ZONE FROM EASTERN OK INTO SOUTHERN AR. RECENT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AR AS OF 04Z MAY BE SURFACE BASED NEAR
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...WITH OTHERS TSTMS /LIKELY ELEVATED AT
THIS TIME/ CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN AR. WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO OCCUR INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AMPLE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR...ALONG WITH STRONG INSTABILITY /3000+ J PER KG MUCAPE/ AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES PER THE 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS FROM LITTLE ROCK AND
SHREVEPORT...WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A SEVERE HAIL RISK WITH SOME
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING/MOVING NEAR THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY.

..GUYER.. 06/13/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   33159114 33449363 34119490 36279279 35748937 33159114

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