[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 101021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101020
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-101115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1018
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN-SERN MO/FAR NERN AR/WRN TN/WRN KY/SRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 101020Z - 101115Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS SRN MO IS DIMINISHING AT THIS
TIME...BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS TO INCREASE AGAIN AS IT REACHES NWRN TN/WRN KY/SRN
IL LATER THIS MORNING /13-14Z/.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED TSTMS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED ALONG SWRN
FLANK OF AN MCS TRACKING ESEWD ACROSS SRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING.  AT
10Z...THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE LOCATED FROM TEXAS TO HOWELL
COUNTIES MO.  WAA/INFLOW OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG NOSE OF A
WSWLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO SRN MO COMBINED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO A MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS SRN MO TOWARD LOWER
OH VALLEY SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS COMPLEX AS IT PROGRESSES E/SEWD.
THESE PROCESSES ARE CURRENTLY SUSTAINING THIS TSTM CLUSTER GIVEN
PERSISTENT COLD CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ALTHOUGH THIS MCS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...A
MINIMUM IN DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY OVER SERN MO SHOULD TEND TO
DIMINISH THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH 11-12Z.  MEANWHILE...A NWD EXTENT
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE LOWER MS INTO LOWER OH VALLEYS
SUGGESTS THAT THE MCS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY/SEVERE
THREAT AROUND 13-14Z AS THE STORMS ENCOUNTER THE CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER INSTABILITY.

..PETERS.. 06/10/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36779260 37479213 37659098 37818956 37718827 37288773
            36518762 35968804 35928919 36099127 36779260



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