[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 260726
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260725
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-260900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1675
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN/ERN AR...WRN TN...NW MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 260725Z - 260900Z

THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL APPEARS TO BE LARGELY IN RESPONSE TO LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING DIVERGENCE WITHIN
A BROADLY DIFLUENT HIGH LEVEL FLOW REGIME TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH.  SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 12-14Z TIME
FRAME...PERHAPS EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...BEFORE SLOWLY
ADVANCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH UPPER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS AREA.

MOISTURE LEVELS ARE HIGH ACROSS THIS REGION...CHARACTERIZED BY
LOWER/MID 70S F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO
AROUND 2 INCHES.  THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 2000-4000 J/KG...SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS...PERHAPS SOME HAIL.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK...MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH A 20-30 KT WESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET COULD EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO CONTRIBUTE TO DOWNBURSTS
ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALIZED STRONG SURFACE GUSTS THAT COULD BRIEFLY
APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.  BUT... HEAVY RAINFALL/FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES SEEM LIKELY TO BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS IN PERSISTENT/TRAINING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

..KERR.. 07/26/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   35669294 36229259 36359149 36529014 36508908 36188832
            35538832 34888923 34479030 34339126 34769242 35199293
            35669294



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