[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 162200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162159
KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-162300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1584
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0459 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MO/NORTHEAST AR TO FAR SOUTHERN
IL/WESTERN KY/WESTERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 162159Z - 162300Z

AT LEAST AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/SOME HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO/NORTHEAST AR AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHERN IL AND WESTERN KY/WESTERN TN THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

LOOSE CLUSTERS OF MAINLY MULTICELLULAR STORMS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MO IN AREAS
ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF I-44 AS OF 2145Z. AIDED BY AN APPARENT MID LEVEL
IMPULSE/SPEED MAXIMA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO AND THE
ADJACENT MS RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO A RESIDUALLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
REFLECTING AS MUCH AS 2000-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AHEAD OF THESE
STORMS. PERIODIC BOUTS OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
SOME HAIL...AND A MORE ORGANIZED/CONSEQUENTIAL RISK COULD DEVELOP IF
STORMS ARE ABLE TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEVELOP AN APPRECIABLE COLD POOL
AS THE DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD.

..GUYER.. 07/16/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   38489168 38078978 37498823 35478884 35399118 36359162
            36669131 38489168

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