[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 160050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160049
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-160145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1572
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN KY/WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN/NORTHEAST AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 585...586...

VALID 160049Z - 160145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
585...586...CONTINUES.

SEVERE TSTM WATCHES 585/586 CONTINUE UNTIL 02Z/04Z
RESPECTIVELY...WITH THE PRIMARY RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE NEED FOR
AN ADDITIONAL WATCH INTO MIDDLE TN AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST KY
IS UNCLEAR...BUT CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY NOT
BE NEEDED.

QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE LINE WITH HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE CONTINUES
TO STEADILY PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
KY/WESTERN TN AS OF 0045Z...WITH ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT HAVING
INCREASED TO 35-40 KT OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. A 41 KT WIND GUST WAS
RECENTLY MEASURED AT PADUCAH KY AS OF 0016Z. AHEAD OF THIS
MCS...OTHER MORE DISCRETE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/PERSIST ALONG A
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST/MIDDLE TN...INCLUDING A VERY
HEAVY RAIN/PERIODIC DAMAGING WIND PRODUCING/NEARLY STATIONARY STORM
ALONG I-40 AROUND 65 MILES WSW OF NASHVILLE. WHILE WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL COULD CONTINUE INTO MIDDLE TN/ADJACENT PORTIONS OF KY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE MCS...AND A RATHER MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WAS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z NASHVILLE OBSERVED RAOB...DIURNAL
COOLING AND THE LIKLIHOOD FOR THE MCS TO GRADUALLY ENCOUNTER A
LOCALLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS /LARGELY OWING TO WEST-CENTRAL TN
STATIONARY STORM/ SUGGESTS AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY NOT BE NEEDED
INTO MIDDLE TN.

..GUYER.. 07/16/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37558818 37498676 35868658 34988836 35359026 36228872
            37558818



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