[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 152237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152236
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-152330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1571
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0536 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MO/FAR SOUTHERN IL/FAR NORTHEAST AR INTO
WESTERN KY/WESTERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 585...

VALID 152236Z - 152330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 585
CONTINUES.

SEVERE TSTM WATCH 585 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO.
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
IL/FAR NORTHEAST AR/MO BOOTHEEL AND PERHAPS WESTERN KY/WESTERN TN.

AIDED BY EARLIER MCV AND A GRADUALLY EXPANDING SURFACE COLD
POOL...SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED QUASI-LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO
CONGEAL/ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MO AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST AR AS OF 2215Z. MODERATE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT /30-35 KT/
AND CONTINUED UPLIFT ALONG THE GUST FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
CONTINUED MAINLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO A
RATHER MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS EITHER SIDE OF THE MS RIVER...WITH AS
MUCH AS 3000-4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE PER LATEST RUC-BASED OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS. AS STORM MERGERS CONTINUE TO OCCUR...A RECENT MODEST
SOUTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION MAY SIGNAL A SOMEWHAT MORE
ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST AR/MO
BOOTHEEL VICINITY...WITH A 44 KT GUST RECENTLY MEASURED AT CORNING
AR. THE MODEST FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE QUASI-LINEAR MCS AND EXPECTED
RELATIVE SHORT DURATION OF THE SEVERE THREAT MAY PRECLUDE AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT SHORT TERM TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

..GUYER.. 07/15/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   38208994 38188864 37028821 35948857 35238988 35559176
            36589182 36899046 38208994



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