[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 151837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151836
TNZ000-KYZ000-152000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1568
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 151836Z - 152000Z

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

A CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER MARSHALL...CALLOWAY
AND TRIGG COUNTIES IN WRN KY WITHIN WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME
OCCURRING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRAILING MCS OVER CNTRL KY.
DESPITE RATHER WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OVER
WRN TN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000-2500 J/KG.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER MARGINAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.  BUT...THE
PRESENCE OF THE WEAK WAA ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUSTAIN DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF STORMS.

GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 40-45 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT 30-35 KT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED
MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..MEAD.. 07/15/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36338880 36808814 36768753 36368662 35818620 35218628
            35058691 35208806 35618847 36338880

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