[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 151557
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151557
KYZ000-TNZ000-151730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1567
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KY INTO NRN MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 151557Z - 151730Z

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST ALONG MCS
TRACK THIS AFTERNOON.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

BOWING MCS CENTERED JUST S OF SDF APPEARS TO DEVELOPING SOME
FORWARD-PROPAGATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS WHICH IS RESULTING IN A SLIGHT
ACCELERATION OF SYSTEM TO 30-35 KT.  THIS ACCELERATION AND BOWING
CONFIGURATION OF MCS ARE LIKELY DUE IN PART TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF
A 35-45 KT REAR INFLOW JET WHICH WAS WELL-SAMPLED BY THE SDF VWP.

BASED ON PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VWP DATA...IT APPEARS THAT SOURCE REGION
OF LOW-LEVEL INFLOW TO SYSTEM IS SRN MO/WRN KY WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IS GREATER WITH DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F.  DESPITE THIS MOIST
INFLOW...THE PRESENCE OF CONSIDERABLE DOWNSHEAR HIGH CLOUDINESS AND
WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /PER 12Z BNA SOUNDING/ WILL TEND TO LIMIT
THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.  LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG SYSTEM TRACK GIVEN
THE ABOVE-MENTIONED REAR INFLOW JET...THOUGH THE PROSPECT FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD WIND EVENT APPEARS LOW ATTM.

..MEAD.. 07/15/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   36468615 36848654 37208690 37458678 37448607 37598540
            38118505 38198478 37788418 36678419 36208444 35978548
            36468615



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