[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 120806
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120805
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-120900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1529
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR/FAR NWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 572...

VALID 120805Z - 120900Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 572
CONTINUES.

REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOWED A DECREASING TREND OF OVERALL STORM
INTENSITIES WITH THE ONGOING MCS OVER NORTH CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL
AR EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO
GRADUALLY WARM.  IF THESE TRENDS PERSIST PARTS OR MUCH OF THIS WATCH
COULD BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO THE SCHEDULED 11Z EXPIRATION.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MO
/OZARK-HOWELL COUNTIES/ INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL-NERN AR
WHERE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WAA IS BEING MAINTAINED ALONG NOSE OF WLY
30 KT LLJ.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRAIN TO THE SSE WITH AN ADDITIONAL
LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS.

FARTHER SSE...CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER EAST CENTRAL AR IS MOVING SWD
AWAY FROM THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WAA AND IS ENCOUNTERING A
STRENGTHENING CAP.  THIS COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD TOP
WARMING WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
SHOW A FURTHER DIMINISHING TREND AS STORMS APPROACH THE SRN EXTENT
OF WW 572.

..PETERS.. 07/12/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   34089013 34029151 35029197 35779190 36499221 36499129
            35149099 35129028 34089013

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