[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 050601
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050601
TNZ000-ALZ000-050900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1438
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT SUN JUL 05 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN-MIDDLE TN...EXTREME NRN AL.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 050601Z - 050900Z

WNW-ESE ALIGNED CLUSTER OF STG TSTMS INITIALLY OVER PORTIONS MID TN
-- FROM CARROLL TO HICKMAN/LEWIS COUNTIES AS OF 530Z -- IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SEWD WITH SOME BACKBUILDING POSSIBLE ON W SIDE.  NET EFFECT
SHOULD BE CONTINUED TRAINING OF CORES CONTAINING 2-3 INCH/HOUR RAIN
RATES OVER THAT CORRIDOR...GRADUALLY EXTENDING/EXPANDING SEWD TOWARD
TN/AL BORDER REGION N OF HSV.  ALTHOUGH MAIN HAZARD WILL ARISE FROM
HEAVY RAIN...ISOLATED STG-DAMAGING GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM
EMBEDDED WET DOWNBURSTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG SRN/SERN PERIPHERY OF MCS
WHERE SMALL BOWS/LEWPS ARE POSSIBLE.

MCS WILL BE MAINTAINED BY VERY MOIST INFLOW PARCELS ROOTED JUST
ABOVE SFC THROUGH 800 MB...ATOP DIFFUSE/OUTFLOW-REINFORCED
BAROCLINIC ZONE ANALYZED FROM SERN THROUGH NWRN TN TO LOW NEAR STL.
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AND BACKBUILDING/PROPAGATIONAL PROCESSES WILL
BE AIDED BY 25-35 KT LLJ...WHICH IS FCST TO VEER FROM WSWLY TO WLY
THROUGH 10Z.  00Z RAOB ANALYSES...GPS DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS
INDICATE UPSTREAM/INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS CONTAINS PW 2-2.25
INCHES...AND MEAN MIXING RATIOS IN 15-16 G/KG RANGE.  RICH MOISTURE
EXTENDS UPWARD THROUGH MUCH OF TROPOSPHERE...WITH TRAJECTORIES ALOFT
THAT EMANATED FROM SWRN CONUS MONSOONAL REGIME.  ASSOCIATED WEAK
LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE OFFSET JUST ENOUGH BY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
THETAE AND WAA TO YIELD MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG IN SUPPORT OF
CONTINUED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

..EDWARDS.. 07/05/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35118726 35498824 35768850 35888729 35608586 34978576
            34928647 35118726

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