[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 111127
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111126
ILZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-111230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0097
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 AM CST WED FEB 11 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO / SRN IL / WRN KY / FAR NERN AR / WRN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 14...

VALID 111126Z - 111230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 14 CONTINUES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST BEYOND 12Z. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT A MORE ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AND AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

AS OF 1115Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BOWING LINE SEGMENT CROSSING
THE MS RIVER WITH THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
EXTENDING FROM PERRY COUNTY IL TO MISSISSIPPI COUNTY MO.  SYSTEM
MOTION WAS GENERALLY E AT 30-35 KT.  RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN
IT/S WAKE /I.E. CGI AND POF/ OBSERVED WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KT.

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
THIS BOWING LINE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
AXIS IN PLACE JUST E OF THE MS RIVER WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.  HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS TEND TO
DECREASE WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS SRN IL...WRN KY AND WRN TN WHICH IS
RESULTING IN ONLY VERY WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  THIS NOTION SEEMS TO
BE CORROBORATED BY A NOTED DECREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER THE
PAST HALF HOUR.

THUS...WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAIN QUITE
STRONG...INCREASINGLY HOSTILE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO LIMIT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT E OF WW 0014.
THEREFORE...NO ADDITIONAL WW IS EXPECTED THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUST REMAINS POSSIBLE.

..MEAD.. 02/11/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35609010 36149020 36988988 37838961 37988943 38158920
            38238877 37898844 37058858 36108903 35358969 35609010



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