[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 181833
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181832
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-SCZ000-182230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2257
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SMOKEY MTNS / PARTS OF WRN NC AND PIEDMONT / ERN TN
/ SWRN VA / SERN WV

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 181832Z - 182230Z

HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL LIKELY COMMENCE
FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS IN THE
18-21Z PERIOD WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS WRN PORTIONS
OF THE NC PIEDMONT.  THE HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WILL EXTEND NEWD INTO
SWRN VA AND SERN WV 21-00Z.  LOCALIZED RATES AROUND 2 INCHES PER
HOUR WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVIER BURSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER E FACING
SLOPES IN WRN NC AND PERHAPS SW VA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A SURFACE WEDGE FRONT FROM
PARTS OF SRN GA NEWD OVER THE ADJACENT SC/NC COASTAL WATERS.
SURFACE TEMPS NEAR 32 DEG F ARE CONFINED MAINLY TO PORTIONS OF WRN
NC AND SWRN VA.  WET BULBING COOLING IN AREAS OF STRONG ASCENT WILL
SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO WET SNOW ACROSS ALL AREAS W OF I-85.

RADAR MOSAIC HAS SHOWN A SLUG OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVING NWD
ACROSS NRN GA THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH MEASURED RAINFALL RATES
0.20-0.30 INCH PER HOUR IN NRN GA AND WRN PART OF UPSTATE SC.  AS A
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER AL/GA MOVES NEWD TOWARDS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS...STRENGTHENING H8-H6 FRONTOGENESIS AND STRONG
MID-LEVEL UVV/S SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH LITTLE
EVIDENCE TO THE CONTRARY...ACCORDING TO RADAR MOSAIC EXTRAPOLATION
AND MODEL CONSENSUS 6 HOURLY QPF...SNOWFALL RATES AOA 1 INCH PER
HOUR ARE LIKELY.  RECENTLY DETECTED LIGHTNING OVER WRN NC INDICATES
UPRIGHT CONVECTION EXISTS OVER A SMALL AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TOWARDS THIS EVENING...ETAKF/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD UPRIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE E FACING
SLOPES IN PARTS OF NWRN NC INTO SWRN VA.  THIS MAY SUPPORT LOCALIZED
SNOW BURSTS APPROACHING 3 INCHES PER HOUR NEAR OR AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING.

..SMITH.. 12/18/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   36317950 35488114 35128242 35008351 35438369 36078300
            36528238 37078183 37588138 37968029 37847951 37077910
            36317950

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net