[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 090348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090347
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-090515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2222
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0947 PM CST TUE DEC 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS THROUGH WRN AND N CNTRL AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 797...798...

VALID 090347Z - 090515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 797...798...CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...ONE OR TWO OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG...AND DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
GREATEST THREAT FROM E-CNTRL MS THROUGH W-CNTRL AND N-CNTRL AL.

WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD AND EXTENDS FROM SRN THROUGH
W-CNTRL AL INTO N-CNTRL MS WHERE IT INTERSECTS A COLD FRONT. A 70+
KT LOW LEVEL JET HAS ADVECTED MID 60S DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE WARM
SECTOR WHERE A RESERVOIR OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE RESIDES FROM LA
THROUGH CNTRL MS. INSTABILITY REMAINS AOB 500 J/KG FARTHER EAST INTO
CNTRL AL WHERE 00Z BIRMINGHAM RAOB INDICATED A STABLE LAYER IN THE
LOWEST 2 KM AND STORMS HAVE TENDED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
MORE STABLE AIR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE FARTHER NEWD WITH TIME. STORMS WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING AND TRAIN NEWD WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET. STRONG DEEP
SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES AROUND 500 M2/S2 WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND THE THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG
TORNADOES.

THE THREAT IS MORE LIMITED BY A STRONGER CAP WITH SWD EXTENT INTO AL
AND BY WEAKER INSTABILITY WITH NWD EXTENT TOWARD SRN TN.

..DIAL.. 12/09/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   35018677 34048630 31898749 31038859 31148996 32198952
            34818801 35018677



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