[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 082312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082312
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-090015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2217
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 PM CST TUE DEC 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS THROUGH NWRN AL AND A SMALL PART OF SRN
MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 082312Z - 090015Z

NRN MS THROUGH NWRN AL AND THE SRN PART OF MIDDLE TN ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED SOON FOR THIS AREA.

SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY TO 70+ KT EAST AND SE OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THAT WILL
DEVELOP INTO THE MO RIVER VALLEY WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET
MIGRATING THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NWD
BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY WITH TIME ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT
THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM S CNTRL-SE MS INTO SWRN AL. NUMEROUS
STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO AL OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE STORMS CURRENTLY LIFTING NEWD THROUGH NERN
MS AND NWRN AL ARE PROBABLY STILL SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. HOWEVER...AS
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS EVENING...STORMS WILL
LIKELY EVENTUALLY BECOME SURFACE BASED. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2 AND STRONG BULK SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS.

..DIAL.. 12/08/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33758773 33829020 34448993 35068879 35008724 33758773

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