[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 210029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210029
TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-210200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1941
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK...NE TX...SRN AR...NW LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 722...

VALID 210029Z - 210200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 722
CONTINUES.

AN INCREASE IN THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN PART OF
WW 722. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE AND INTENSIFY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THIS
EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 722 MAY NEED TO BE LOCALLY
EXPANDED OR A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED EWD ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AR AND
NRN LA WHERE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE.

A LINE OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF A COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL AR EXTENDING WSWWD TO JUST NORTHEAST OF
DALLAS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ON THE
SRN SIDE OF A WELL-DEVELOPED 60-75 MID-LEVEL JET IS SUPPORTING THE
DEVELOPING STORMS AND SHORT-TERM MODELS CONSISTENTLY INCREASE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS EVENING FROM THE MEMPHIS AREA WSWWD TO NEAR
TEXARKANA. THE LATEST PROFILER IN FAR SE OK SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40
KT SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ANALYZED BY THE RUC OVER NE TX. FURTHER EAST ACROSS SRN AR...A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE WSR88D-VWPS SHOW
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F.

..BROYLES.. 08/21/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34719051 33679179 32819342 32899547 33269723 33459816
            33959789 34259691 34249542 34549317 35549100 35719045
            35499001 34909024 34719051

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