[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 111704
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111703
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-111830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1868
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TN TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF VA/NC AND
ADJACENT WV/SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111703Z - 111830Z

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE/DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS FROM EASTERN TN TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF VA/NC...AND
PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SC/WV. IF INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

BENEATH MODEST LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
AMPLIFYING POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH...BROKEN QUASI-LINEAR CLUSTER
OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS HAVE EVOLVED ACROSS FAR EASTERN TN OVER THE
PAST HOUR. WHILE 12Z OBSERVED REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SAMPLED RELATIVELY
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW TO
MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
EVOLVING CONVECTIVE LINE/INCREASING SURFACE COLD POOL MAY SUPPORT
UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR GROWTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...GIVEN A
WELL-HEATED/MOIST AIRMASS ALONG/EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS CREST INTO
VA/NC. WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM
WATCH.

..GUYER.. 08/11/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   37588179 37567919 36037958 34738156 35378459 37588179



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