[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 050719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050718
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-MOZ000-050815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1783
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CDT WED AUG 05 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR THROUGH SWRN TN AND NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 663...

VALID 050718Z - 050815Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 663
CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
WILL PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS NRN AND NERN AR NEXT COUPLE HOURS. VERY
HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR ALSO
REMAINS LIKELY. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...AND REMAINING PARTS OF WW 663 WILL
PROBABLY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 08Z.

EARLY THIS MORNING A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NRN MS
NWWD THROUGH NERN AR. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MUCAPE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG/ WITH THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES LOCATED ACROSS AR.
STORMS HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS WRN TN AND HAVE BECOME ELEVATED WELL
NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRONGER STORMS SHOULD PERSIST NEXT
COUPLE HOURS ACROSS NERN AR WHERE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH 30 KT SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INTERACTING WITH SWD MOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WHERE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST. LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER AND WEAKEN IN WAKE OF IMPULSE
DROPPING SEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN LIFT ALONG THE GUST FRONT LATER THIS MORNING. IN
THE MEANTIME...STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG SWD THROUGH NERN AR MAY
REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..DIAL.. 08/05/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36579240 35989099 35218989 34478909 34279040 34879093
            35569146 36029238 36489316 36579240



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