[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 042321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042321
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-050115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1778
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0621 PM CDT TUE AUG 04 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN MO...EXTREME SERN KS...EXTREME NRN
AR...EXTREME NERN OK...WRN/CENTRAL KY...WRN-MIDDLE TN...EXTREME NRN
AL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 658...

VALID 042321Z - 050115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 658
CONTINUES.

ANOTHER WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR MORE OF MIDDLE/WRN TN AND
PERHAPS NRN AL.  MAIN SVR CONCERN WILL REMAIN DAMAGING WIND WITH
INCREASINGLY WELL-ORGANIZED COMPLEX NOW MOVING SEWD APPROXIMATELY 30
KT FROM LOWEST OH RIVER VALLEY ACROSS PORTIONS WRN KY.

THIS COMPLEX SHOULD TRACK SEWD ALONG AND W OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
RELATED TO COLD POOL DISCUSSED IN MCD 1776.  FOREGOING/INFLOW-LAYER
AIR MASS TOWARD MID TN AND NRN AL WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER
FEW HOURS...AS RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HELPS TO KEEP EFFECTIVE
INFLOW PARCELS ROOTED AT OR VERY NEAR SFC...WITH MLCAPE REMAINING
1500-2500 J/KG SW OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  BUOYANCY SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH TIME AND WITH SWD EXTENT S OF ROUGHLY TN/AL STATE LINE WHERE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES EACH DIMINISH.
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALSO WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT.

FARTHER W...RISING HEIGHTS AND STRONGER CAPPING CAST CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY NOW THAT DIURNAL WARMING HAS PEAKED AND SFC
DIABATIC COOLING WILL LEAD TO GREATER MLCINH.

..EDWARDS.. 08/04/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
TSA...

LAT...LON   37099505 37329307 38089041 37648937 37478853 37598760
            36928705 35618645 34858709 35438936 35979041 36469485
            37099505



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