[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 042245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042245
VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-INZ000-050015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1776
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0545 PM CDT TUE AUG 04 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN APPALACHIANS REGION.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 657...659...

VALID 042245Z - 050015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
657...659...CONTINUES.

WWS MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND CONVECTION INVOF LEADING EDGE OF COLD
POOL.  AREAS S OF WWS ACROSS WRN NC...SERN TN AND NRN GA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.  HOWEVER...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL HAS PEAKED...WHILE MORE ISOLATED/SPORADIC
WIND DAMAGE STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR 2-3 MORE HOURS...PARTICULARLY
OVER MOST EXPOSED SLOPES FACING NW OR N.

PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
CONTRIBUTING TO MAINTENANCE OF NEARLY SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW
PARCELS THROUGH FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER ONSET OF SFC DIABATIC
COOLING.  THIS SUPPORTS CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG FOR
ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS OVER SERN TN AND FAR WRN NC...BASED ON MODIFIED
RUC SOUNDINGS.  BUOYANCY DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT SWD OVER GA AS LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WEAKEN.  SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ROBUST POSTCONVECTIVE
COLD POOL WITH 3-5 MB PER 2 HR PRESSURE RISES AND 15-20 DEG F
THERMAL COOLING.  ADDITIONAL TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND
LEADING GUST FRONT -- WHICH HAS SURGED WELL AHEAD OF MOST
CONVECTION.  COLD POOL ALSO IS SHIFTING SWD OUT FROM BENEATH
STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS.  THEREFORE...SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD
BECOME MORE MRGL AND INTERMITTENT WITH TIME IN ASSOCIATION WITH
PRIMARY COLD POOL.

..EDWARDS.. 08/04/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...

LAT...LON   38388675 37558610 36958577 36598527 36298452 36188381
            36268316 36488251 36798192 36568145 35818125 35358169
            34888224 34678294 34458408 34578529 35008631 35688669
            37468727 38018728 38388675



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