[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 041937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041936
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-042100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1773
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT TUE AUG 04 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN MO...FAR SRN IL...WRN/SRN KY INTO NRN
MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 041936Z - 042100Z

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 657.  TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WWS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF WW
657.

A PRE-FRONTAL LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL RIDGE IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI/
LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION...TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.  AS THIS
OCCURS...DESTABILIZATION AND FORCING ALONG THIS FEATURE APPEARS
LIKELY TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR INCREASING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE
BORDER AREA...WHERE MERGING/CONSOLIDATING STORMS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ONE EXPANDING STORM CLUSTER IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.  FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERN PORTION OF
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH SHIFTING WITHIN BROADER SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER GROWING STORM CLUSTER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY.  AS THIS OCCURS...AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD POOLS DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN MOMENTUM/SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A 30-50 KT WESTERLY 500 MB SPEED MAXIMUM WILL
PROBABLY EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
BY EARLY EVENING.  UNTIL THIS OCCURS...THE RISK FOR FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN.

..KERR.. 08/04/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   37778665 37698553 37628475 37118396 36538387 35908456
            36048594 36358781 36479086 36669250 37259338 37569274
            38029081 37848917 37788810 37778665

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net