[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 041641
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041641
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-041815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1772
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 AM CDT TUE AUG 04 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN IND...SW OH...KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 656...

VALID 041641Z - 041815Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 656
CONTINUES.

DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO WESTERN/
CENTRAL KENTUCKY EXISTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  HEAVY RAINFALL/
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND SOME HAIL WILL CONTINUE IN
ONGOING CONVECTION.  TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW
SOUTH OF WW 656.

VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONGEST
PORTION OF THE SURFACE COLD POOL PROBABLY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
SHORTLY...AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN ENVIRONMENT STABILIZED BY PRIOR
CONVECTION EAST OF THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA.  HOWEVER...RECENT NEW
STORMS ALONG GUST FRONT SOUTHWEST OF BLOOMINGTON INTO AREAS NEAR/
WEST OF EVANSVILLE...COUPLED WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER AIR EMANATING FROM THE PLAINS...COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A GROWING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NEAR/SOUTH AND WEST OF LOUISVILLE BETWEEN NOW AND
18-19Z.  INHIBITION CONTINUES TO DECREASE WITH SURFACE HEATING
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WHERE THE VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER IS CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG.  AND...
FORCING/SHEAR MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW
AMPLITUDE IMPULSE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER CYCLONIC MID/
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

..KERR.. 08/04/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   37968797 38428727 38878675 39098621 38708524 38138497
            37648437 36978358 36548470 36678560 37118787 37968797



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