[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 191923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191922
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-192015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0526
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...SERN MO...NRN MS...WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 171...172...

VALID 191922Z - 192015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
171...172...CONTINUES.

REGIONAL RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASING
ACROSS WW 171...AND SPREADING INTO THE SRN PORTION OF WW 172. A
BOWING LINE SEGMENT MOVING E AT 30-35 WILL MOVE FROM ARKANSAS COUNTY
AR TOWARD THE MS RIVER DURING THE NEXT HOUR...WHILE A MULTICELL
CLUSTER CURRENTLY OVER INDEPENDENCE COUNTY AR MOVES E AT 25-30 KT
TOWARD JACKSON/CRAIGHEAD/POINSETT COUNTIES IN NERN AR. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN CLEARING
SKIES AND APPROACHING UPR COLD POOL OVER NRN AR...WITH MODIFIED RUC
SOUNDINGS FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 60S/LOW 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN
UPR 50S/AROUND 60 YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
UPDRAFT CORES.

A BROKEN LINE OF QUASI DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
THE AR/MS BORDER...AND IS MOVING ENE AT AROUND 40 KT. AS THESE
STORMS MOVE DEEPER INTO WW 172...THEY WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER A
SHEAR PROFILE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORM
STRUCTURES...CHARACTERIZED BY EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50 KT AND SRH
AROUND 100-150 M2/S2. THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.

..GARNER.. 04/19/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   33429291 35769191 37439116 37418915 36598954 36548762
            33768877 33779089 33449102 33429291



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