[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 101826
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101826
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-101930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0431
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0126 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN IL / W-CNTRL KY / SRN IN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 131...

VALID 101826Z - 101930Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 131 CONTINUES.

SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER PARTS
OF SRN IL / SRN IN / AND W-CNTRL KY.  INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
LIKELY IN THE NEXT HR OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL KY /I-75
CORRIDOR/ AS POTENTIALLY TORNADIC STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM TN.

COMPLEX SURFACE SETUP EVOLVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY
AS LOW NEAR THE MS/OH RIVER CONFLUENCE TRACKS EWD AS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT MOVES E WITH W-E ORIENTED WARM FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE OH
RIVER.  RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR MOSAIC SHOW INITIAL BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS OVER CNTRL KY HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY.  HOWEVER...DISCRETE
STORMS FURTHER W /ESPECIALLY POTENTIALLY TORNADIC HP-SUPERCELL OVER
MUHLENBERG COUNTY/ WILL CROSS MOIST/INSTABILITY AXIS WITHIN THE NEXT
HR PERHAPS MAINTAINING ISOLD TORNADIC POTENTIAL.  UPDRAFTS THAT CAN
BE SUSTAIN THEMSELVES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF LOW ALONG OH RIVER
CORRIDOR MAY POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT BUT WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR
/BELOW 20 KTS/ PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS MAY LIMIT TORNADO THREAT.

FARTHER E OVER E-CNTRL KY...ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY POSE A HAIL
THREAT WITH STRONGER CORES LOCATED WITHIN WARM ADVECTION WING.  AN
INCREASING TORNADIC THREAT ACROSS THE SRN TIER COUNTIES OF S-CNTRL
KY NEAR I-75 APPEARS PROBABLE THE NEXT HR OR TWO.  A NEW WW MAY BE
REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 131.

..SMITH.. 04/10/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   36748330 36628520 36668674 37018761 37608900 38138815
            38708589 38498370 38088272 37418260 36948301 36748330

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