[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 021301
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021301
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-021400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0365
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 AM CDT THU APR 02 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN AR...ERN LA/WRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 021301Z - 021400Z

NEW WW/S WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY FROM
PARTS OF ERN LA/WRN MS INTO CENTRAL/ERN AR.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
MOVES E TOWARD THE ARKLATEX.  INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR NWD
FROM LA/MS INTO CENTRAL/ERN AR.  TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY
RECENTLY ACROSS SWRN AR AND SWWD INTO FAR ERN TX ALONG THE LA
BORDER...WITH THE SRN MOST ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO EXIT THE ERN PART OF
WW 102 BY 15Z.

GIVEN THESE TRENDS...NEW WW/S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON FOR PARTS
OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  AS SURFACE BASED INHIBITION WEAKENS
FURTHER...THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE
WITH SUBSEQUENT POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO THREATS.

..PETERS.. 04/02/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31059222 32239195 33339228 33649304 34109352 34959318
            35359151 35499008 34268952 32138961 30769012 30829125
            31059222

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