[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 141421
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141421
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-141545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2270
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0921 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...MS...NW AL INTO MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 905...

VALID 141421Z - 141545Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 905 CONTINUES.

HOWEVER...A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE REMAINING VALID PORTION
OF WW 905 EXPIRES AT 15Z.

DUE TO THE WARMTH OF THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION TRAILING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF REMNANTS OF IKE IS GENERALLY WEAK.
AND...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE RAPID STRONG
SURFACE HEATING.  WITH ONGOING CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUME A
DEEP MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE LINGERING CIRCULATION CENTER OF
IKE...CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND NEAR SATURATION
THROUGH THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL EAST OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS IKE
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY ACCELERATE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MID DAY.  SHRINKING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING/MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FIELDS SHOULD ALSO LOWER TORNADO POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION
LOADING IN LINGERING CONVECTION COULD STILL AID THE DOWNWARD
TRANSPORT OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR... CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG SURFACE
WIND GUSTS...EVEN AS LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW DIMINISHES TO THE
30-40 KT RANGE.

..KERR.. 09/14/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

31519342 32419178 33309032 34478906 35598814 36488723
36218602 34508573 32578705 31018974 30229251



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