[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 022342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022342
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-MOZ000-030145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2206
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...OUTER NERN RIM OF TD GUSTAV ENVELOPE -- PORTIONS
NRN MS...EXTREME SWRN TN...NERN AR...EXTREME SRN MO.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 883...

VALID 022342Z - 030145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 883 CONTINUES.

SPORADIC TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH PRIMARY OUTER BAND OF
TSTMS FROM EXTREME NERN MS NWWD ACROSS NERN AR TO VICINITY MO/AR
BORDER S OF SGF...INCLUDING MUCH OF WW AREA.

SFC MESOANALYSES SHOW PRONOUNCED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH EDGE REGION OF CLOUD SHIELD...WITH HEATING OCCURRING
IN INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW-MID 70S F SFC DEW
POINTS.  RESULTING HIGH SFC THETAE OFFSETS WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT IN
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MLCAPES 250-500 J/KG.  MLCINH
APPEARS TO INCREASE SWD ACROSS NRN MS...WHILE FAVORABLE WIND
PROFILES WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BOTH WWD ACROSS NWRN AR/SRN MO AND NWD
AND NEWD FROM SGF-JBR-MEM LINE...WITH DISTANCE FROM CYCLONE CENTER.
MEANWHILE BUOYANCY DIMINISHES GREATLY SWD INTO CENTRAL AR BENEATH
PERSISTENT CLOUD/PRECIP SHIELD.  THIS CORRIDOR IS ON OUTER EDGE OF
AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILES...WITH INTERPOLATED
MEM-SGF VWP INDICATING 0-1 KM SRH IN 100-200 J/KG RANGE.  RESULT IS
VERY NARROW CRESCENT SHAPED ZONE OF FAVORABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY
OVERLAP THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AROUND DUSK.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT SLOWLY DIMINISHING SVR POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH
LOSS OF HEATING...WEAKENING OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE AND
RESULTANT STABILIZATION.

..EDWARDS.. 09/02/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

34239014 34889059 35659162 36019282 36409428 36789434
36929376 36609208 35899041 35018952 34398943



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