[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 071831
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071830
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-072030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2315
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN...MO BOOTHEEL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 071830Z - 072030Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A SMALL SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE ADDED AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE SLY WINDS HAVE ADVECTED TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F AS FAR N AS THE MO
BOOTHEEL. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF CU DEVELOPING NEAR THE MS
RIVER WHERE AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE EXISTS.

ALTHOUGH A LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE NOW EXISTS OVER NR AR AND SE MO AND
WILL DEPART THE AREA...CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF AND ALONG AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS FAVOR A FEW LONG LIVED STORMS...POSSIBLY SMALL
BOWS THAT WILL TRAVEL NEWD WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...OVERALL...DOES NOT FAVOR TORNADOES DUE TO WEAK AND VEERING
SURFACE WINDS WITH TIME. HOWEVER...A BRIEF WINDOW MAY EXIST FOR A
TORNADO WITH ANY NON-OUTFLOW DOMINANT CELLULAR STORM THAT EVOLVES
AND MOVES E OF THE MS RIVER WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE A BIT MORE
BACKED.

..JEWELL.. 10/07/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

33688990 33169057 33049144 33229205 33699190 34479150
35549069 36239027 36449004 36498969 36488915 36478849
35278878

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