[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 261711
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261710
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-261815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1046
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF AR/TN/KY/MS/AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261710Z - 261815Z

ONGOING CONVECTION ORIENTED IN 2 NNE TO SSW LINES IN KY/TN ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL
GENERALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

TWO BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTION HAVE CONTINUED TO PROGRESS EWD THIS
MORNING. THE EASTERN-MOST LINE IS BEING SUSTAINED BY A CONVERGENT
LINE AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THE WESTERN MOST LINE HAS
ORIENTED ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS TO THE S WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD IN
PRIMARILY SLY FLOW...HELPING TO SUSTAIN ONGOING CONVECTION.
ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD SWD INTO NRN
MS/AL AS EVIDENCED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. COOLING CLOUD TOPS
ON IR AND INCREASING T/TD AHEAD OF THE LINES SUGGESTS THAT
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/FLOW AND SHEAR WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL.
EXPECT MAIN THREAT TO BE DMGG WINDS AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD INTO THESE
AREAS...SUPPORTING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING.

..HURLBUT.. 05/26/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

34568736 34248898 35069052 35639046 36968896 37888627
37848571 36578532

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